On Monday, April 28, the Liberal Party of Canada secured a fourth consecutive mandate, this time under Prime Minister Carney, winning enough seats to form a minority government in the House of Commons.

Prime Minister Carney will lead a reenergized Liberal government as Canada faces down an ongoing trade war with the United States and a changing world order. This victory represents a remarkable comeback for the Liberals, which trailed significantly in public opinion polls for nearly two years ahead of the election.

The stability of the government will depend on the willingness and ability of parties to cooperate in crafting and passing legislation in Parliament. The Liberal government will be expected to seek the confidence of opposition parties in the House of Commons issue-by-issue.

Election results

This election was the first with 343 electoral districts, five more than the previous 338—an expansion of the House of Commons that saw redistributions of electoral districts across the country.

The Liberals were elected in 168 ridings, up from 152 at the time of dissolution. The Conservative Party will serve as the Official Opposition with 144 seats, an increase from 120 when Parliament dissolved. Yesterday afternoon, the Liberals were reported to have picked an extra seat in Quebec—bringing the projected number of seats to 169. Liberal challenger Tatiana Auguste won by 35 votes ahead of Bloc Québécois incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné in the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne. A judicial recount is likely.

From the outset, this election was framed as a contest between the visions of the Liberal and Conservative parties, and the electorate voted accordingly. The New Democratic Party (NDP) saw its support collapse across the country, securing only 7 seats, down from 24 before the election. The NDP did not retain official party status, having not reached the 12-seat threshold.

The Bloc Québécois also experienced a reduction in its seat count, winning 22 seats in the province of Québec, well below a previous 33.

The Green Party lost one of the seats it held ahead of the election and will now be represented only by its co-leader Elizabeth May in the House of Commons.

As of April 29, Elections Canada reported a voter turnout of 68.65%, higher than the 62.6% turnout in the 2021 election. A record-setting 7.3 million Canadians voted in advance polls.

Notable outcomes

Prime Minister Mark Carney was elected in Nepean, a riding in the City of Ottawa.

Quite uniquely, two party leaders lost their seats on election night. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat in the riding of Carleton, to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy. Pierre Poilievre held the riding of Carleton for more than two decades, having first been elected in 2004. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat in Burnaby Centre to Liberal Wade Chang, ultimately finishing third in that race.

Leader of the Bloc Québécois, Yves-Francois Blanchet, won his seat in the riding of Beloeil-Chambly, as did co-leader of the Green Party of Canada, Elizabeth May in Saanich-Gulf Islands (Elizabeth May’s co-leader, Jonathan Pedneault, lost his race in the Montreal riding of Outremont, finishing fourth with Liberal incumbent Rachel Bendayan retaining her seat).

The Liberals were redeemed in two prominent races, one in Toronto–St. Paul’s and another in Lasalle – Émard – Verdun, with Leslie Church and Claude Guay winning in those ridings, respectively. Leslie Church and Laura Palestini had previously lost both of those seats for the Liberals in 2024 by-elections. At the time, those losses were seen to portend the demise of the Liberal government and are often seen to have motivated discussions of a leadership change and a recalibration of the Liberal electoral strategy.

The Conservatives outperformed in Ontario. They saw gains in trade-impacted regions, including vital industrial hubs in southwestern Ontario. Conservatives won seats in Windsor West, beating long-time NDP MP Brian Masse, and Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore, which Liberal MP Irek Kusmierczyk held previously. Conservatives also made gains in the Peel and York regions surrounding Toronto.

Liberals made significant gains in Québec at the expense of the Bloc Québécois. Those victories in Québec were essential to the Liberals securing government.

Astonishingly, the Liberals only won nine ridings out of a total of 65 in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Liberals won a seat in Saskatchewan for first time since 2015, with Buckley Belanger finding success in the riding of Desnethé—Missinippi – Churchill River.

Liberal Rebecca Chertrand defeated prominent NDP MP Niki Ashton in the Manitoba riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. Liberal Doug Eyolfson also defeated Conservative incumbent Marty Morantz in Winnipeg West. Liberal incumbents in other ridings in the Winnipeg area will return to the House of Commons, including Kevin Lamoureux in Winnipeg North, Ginette Lavack in St. Boniface-St. Vital, Ben Carr in Winnipeg South Centre, and Terry Duguid in Winnipeg South.

In Alberta, the Liberals won two seats out of 37 ridings (Eleanor Olszewski in Edmonton Centre and Corey Hogan in Calgary Confederation). This will likely be challenging to the new Carney government as Premier Danielle Smith puts her priorities forward to the new government.  

High-profile NDP MPs lost their seats in British Columbia to the Liberals, in addition to NDP leader Jagmeet Singh. Liberal Zoe Royer defeated Bonita Zarrillo in Port Moody – Coquitlam, and prominent NDP MP Peter Julian lost his seat in New Westminster-Burnaby-Maillardville to Liberal Jake Sawatzky.

Leaders’ responses

In remarks to supporters in the early hours of April 29, Prime Minister Carney focused on values of “humility,” “ambition,” and “unity.” The Prime Minister acknowledged that there are mistakes to be learned from in this election, and committed to represent everyone who calls Canada home, regardless of whom they voted for. At what he called “a hinge moment in history” the Prime Minister stated that he will work with all parties to build an independent future for Canada.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre congratulated Prime Minister Carney on the Liberals’ victory and committed to holding the government to account. Pierre Poilievre stated that Conservatives will “put Canada first” and work with the Prime Minister and all parties to secure new trade deals, secure sovereignty, and defend Canadians.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh conceded defeat for his party, and for himself in his own riding. He announced that he will step down as leader of the NDP as soon as an interim leader can be appointed. Singh congratulated Prime Minister Carney, stating that the Prime Minister now has the responsibility to protect Canada and its sovereignty from President Donald Trump. He stated that the NDP is “on team Canada and wants Canada to thrive.”

Next steps

Yesterday afternoon, Prime Minister Carney spoke with President Trump. The readout released by the Prime Minister’s Office shortly thereafter, states, “The leaders agreed on the importance of Canada and the United States working together—as independent, sovereign nations—for their mutual betterment. To that end, the leaders agreed to meet in person in the near future.”

As of election day on April 28, 2025, Parliament had not sat for 130 days; the House of Commons rose on December 19, 2024, for winter recess, and Parliament was prorogued on January 6, 2025, following which the government called a snap election. Prime Minister Carney is expected to install a new cabinet promptly and ask Governor General Mary Simon to open the 45th session of Parliament with a Speech from the Throne to begin moving the business of his government forward.

Conclusion

The 2025 federal election represents history in the making. It has ushered in a fourth consecutive term for the Liberals—a new post-Trudeau mandate for Prime Minister Carney. Despite facing significant challenges and trailing poorly in the polls for an extended period, the Liberals managed to secure a victory following the recent leadership change and strategic recalibration performed by a former public servant and banker.

The election results transformed the political landscape, with notable gains and losses across various parties. As the new minority government prepares to address pressing public policy issues such as easing the cost of living, building more affordable houses, increasing defence spending, and boosting the economy while addressing President Trump’s unjustified tariffs, the government will need to work with the Conservatives and the provinces.  

The stability and effectiveness of the government will depend on collaboration. The coming months will be crucial as Prime Minister Carney seeks to unite the country and navigate the complexities of both domestic and international affairs. His Cabinet will need to quickly engage on these critical issues.