With the election of President Doumbouya on 28 December 2025, Guinea has moved from political transition into a post-transition phase under a democratically legitimised government, materially improving the country's international standing and investability without altering underlying policy direction. Since the change of government in 2021, the authorities have consistently articulated mining as central to the country's economic and industrial development, with early engagement with the international mining industry reinforcing expectations of continuity and permit stability.

That trajectory was disrupted in 2025 by a broad cancellation of mining permits across multiple commodities. In execution, the measures were blunt. Permits held by operators that appeared substantially compliant were swept up alongside dormant or speculative licences, materially increasing legal and political risk and prompting a number of announced or threatened investor-state disputes.

More recently, the direction of travel has shifted again. The mining cadastre has reopened, engagement channels have resumed, and administrative processes are moving forward. There is credible evidence that the authorities recognise the 2025 approach went too far and that a recalibration is under way.

In December 2025, President Doumbouya secured democratic legitimacy through elections. While the process attracted criticism, it was conducted without major incident and has materially altered Guinea's political baseline. Democratic legitimacy removes a key structural constraint on engagement with Western governments, including the United States, and reopens avenues for financing and risk-mitigation support from multilateral and development finance institutions, including bodies such as the IFC. From an investability perspective, this materially improves Guinea's medium-term outlook.

Security conditions since the election have been stable. Heightened security measures in Conakry and other urban centres have limited protest activity and reduced the risk of near-term political disruption. More broadly, Guinea has remained insulated from the acute security deterioration seen in parts of the central Sahel, supporting a more settled political environment against which regulatory and fiscal risks can be assessed.

Political and regulatory context

Mining sits at the core of Guinea's policy framework. The government's "Simandou 2040" development strategy explicitly anchors economic transformation to mining revenues, with Simandou as its centrepiece. The project is conceived not merely as an iron ore mine, but as a national development corridor, combining a world-class resource with trans-Guinean rail infrastructure, new port capacity and the foundations for broader industrialisation.

This framing suggests a structural incentive for the government to preserve credibility with international investors, lenders and contractors. A sustained loss of confidence would directly impair the execution of Simandou and the wider development agenda built around it.

The 2025 permit cancellations sit uneasily within this framework. The revocations were applied with a broad brush, affecting compliant and non-compliant operators alike and exposing the state to avoidable legal risk. Since then, there has been a visible shift back towards dialogue and case-by-case assessment, with engagement again becoming the preferred mechanism for addressing permitting and compliance issues.

However, as noted by Daniel Driscoll, who heads Gowling WLG's Africa natural resources practice, in the Financial Times' reporting on Simandou[1]:

"Over a 30-year horizon, resource nationalism is a risk that cannot be ignored. It could turn into a populist issue that will be very hard to resist."

That observation is particularly relevant in the current West African context. Fiscal and regulatory recalibrations in neighbouring jurisdictions, including Mali and Burkina Faso, have attracted limited international pushback, reinforcing the political viability of similar measures elsewhere. Where the renegotiation of fiscal terms becomes a regional political trend rather than a country-specific response, it becomes difficult for individual governments to resist, even where long-term development objectives depend on sustaining investor confidence.

Legal risk: permit cancellations and investor-state disputes

The 2025 revocation exercise triggered a cluster of announced and threatened disputes, principally framed around expropriation and denial of fair and equitable treatment, spanning multiple commodities and project scales.

A clear distinction has emerged between operators that failed to meet clearly articulated development obligations and those progressing projects in line with approved programmes but nonetheless affected by the revocations. In the latter category, there is a growing recognition within government that permits were cancelled without sufficient process.

Formal proceedings remain available as a backstop. At present, however, constructive engagement appears to be the more effective route to resolution where compliance can be demonstrated, both in terms of timing and preservation of longer-term operating relationships.

Royalties, fiscal pressure and political optics

Guinea is reviewing aspects of its fiscal framework, including gold royalties. This should be viewed through a regional lens. Across West Africa, governments are reassessing the balance between investor returns and state participation in response to elevated commodity prices and domestic political pressure.

Similar dynamics are evident in neighbouring jurisdictions. In that sense, Guinea's approach reflects a broader regional recalibration rather than a uniquely hostile stance towards mining. For investors, the principal risk lies in incremental fiscal tightening rather than abrupt or arbitrary expropriation. In that context, ensuring that projects are fiscally robust by stress-testing them against more conservative royalty and tax assumptions is critical to managing both country-specific and regional risk.

Industrialisation, power and enabling infrastructure

A persistent constraint on Guinea's industrial ambitions has been power availability. Commitments to downstream processing and beneficiation have, in some cases, proved difficult to meet in the absence of reliable baseload energy.

There are indications this may change. Proposals to introduce floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) to support gas-to-power generation could materially alter the operating environment over time, supporting refineries, smelters and other industrial projects. While still at an early stage, such initiatives are aligned with the government's broader industrialisation narrative and would, if realised, reduce friction between policy ambition and operational feasibility.

Market behaviour: who is moving in, and who is not

Despite recent uncertainty, capital continues to move into Guinea. Credible international mining operators are expanding or entering the country, and large-scale projects are advancing with state support. This contrasts with parts of the central Sahel, where political, security and regulatory dynamics have rendered jurisdictions effectively uninvestable.

This divergence matters. It suggests that investors view Guinea's challenges as manageable rather than structural, and that the country continues to compete favourably for mining capital within the region.

Practical implications for investors

Guinea is not a jurisdiction for passive capital. Successful investment requires disciplined execution, careful structuring and sustained government engagement. Key considerations include evidencing compliance rigorously, underwriting fiscal adjustment, aligning project timelines with administrative realities and treating litigation as a tool of last resort.

From setback to stabilisation

Guinea has stumbled, but it has not changed direction. The permit cancellations of 2025 were an unfortunate setback that created avoidable legal and political risk. The subsequent reopening of dialogue, recalibration of administrative practice and restoration of democratic legitimacy point to a renewed effort to stabilise the investment environment.

For financial sponsors and strategic investors prepared to manage political and regulatory complexity, Guinea remains one of the more compelling mining jurisdictions in West Africa. The upside potential is significant, and the country's development trajectory is now closely tied to the success of mining-led growth rather than its rejection.

For more information on how these developments may affect your investments or operations, please contact Daniel Driscoll to discuss how our Mining team can support you.

Footnotes:

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/9fe8f588-5383-4fde-b2f7-11fcbb206384