Premier Ford’s early election call paid off. With 18 months still remaining in the current mandate, he won an unprecedented third majority government, ensuring his government will outlast President Trump’s administration. Premier Ford now has the mandate he sought from Ontarians amid President Trump’s looming tariff threats, which are expected to take effect on Tuesday, March 4.

Introduction

On January 24, 2025, Premier Doug Ford called a snap election in Ontario, which took place on February 27, 2025, almost a year and a half earlier than required. The Premier’s sudden election call came after months of speculation, as Ford aimed to capitalize on favourable polling and strong fundraising conditions within the Progressive Conservative Party. Ultimately, the looming threat of tariffs by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump weighed heavily in Premier Ford’s decision to seek an early election. Premier Ford sought to capitalize on economic uncertainty and trade instability, offering his vision to secure Ontario’s interests and protect Ontario consumers from the harsh impacts of a trade war with the United States.

Premier Ford and the Progressive Conservatives (“PCs”) succeeded in their wager of calling an early election, securing a third consecutive majority government, winning 80 seats down from 83 in last election. With this victory, the PCs are guaranteed to form government for the duration of the Trump administration, allowing them to implement their policy priorities pursuant to a single, fresh mandate. 

Voter turnout was lower than expected in this year’s election, with 45.40% of eligible voters casting a ballot, which is higher than the voter turnout of 43.03% in 2022.

Results

While the PCs were favoured to win this election from the outset, polls remained relatively stagnant throughout the election period. Opposition parties outperformed expectations in some ridings but were unable to close the distance in terms of total seat count.

The Ontario New Democratic Party, led by Marit Stiles, will remain in official opposition with 27 seats, despite polling in third place for most of the campaign. On election night, Marit Stiles stated that her party will hold the Ford government to account, while also offering support to the government as it implements measures in response to threats from the United States.   

The Ontario Liberal Party, led by former Mississauga mayor, Bonnie Crombie, won 14 seats, up from eight in the last election. The Ontario Liberals made gains in this election and succeeded in obtaining Official Party status having surpassed the 12-seat threshold. Notably, however, Ontario Liberal Party Leader Bonnie Crombie did not win her own electoral race in Mississauga East—Cooksville.  She confirmed that she will remain as Leader of her party. 

The Green Party of Ontario, led by Mike Schreiner, won two seats, and Bobbi Ann Brady, an independent candidate, has secured her seat in Haldimand-Norfolk.

Path ahead and Cabinet picks

This election was unusual as it focused more on international affairs rather than provincial matters. With a strong mandate secured, Premier Ford will now compose a Cabinet that is structured to face the spectre of economic challenges for the province.

In response to the escalating risk of an economic crisis following the imposition of tariffs by the United States, Premier Ford is expected to form a cabinet specifically tasked with addressing threats to economic security in key industries, including energy, technology, critical minerals and manufacturing. Trusted members of the Progressive Conservative caucus will assume strategically important Cabinet roles, charged with safeguarding Ontario's economy. Ford's new cabinet is expected to focus on developing policies to counter tariffs, including exploring retaliatory measures within provincial jurisdiction. Such measures, as outlined in the PC election platform, could include withdrawing all American alcoholic beverages from LCBO (Liquor Control Board of Ontario) stores, barring U.S. firms from obtaining government contracts in Ontario, and altering the price of electricity exports to the U.S.

In addition, it is anticipated that investments will be made towards public safety, as a part of parallel federal and provincial efforts to strengthen border security and crime prevention; this being done to assuage concerns from U.S. officials about the shared border with Canada. The new PC government is also likely to expand policing capability through new funding, equipment and resources.

Government’s planned response to U.S. tariffs

Premier Ford vowed to spend upward of $40 billion to provide immediate support for workers, businesses and communities hit by tariffs. In the campaign platform, the PCs commit to the following measures:

  • $5 billion to create a Protect Ontario Account to support major industries and workers if U.S. tariffs go through. The party would also enhance termination and severance rights for workers affected by tariff-related layoffs and closures.
  • $10 billion to defer provincially administered taxes on Ontario businesses by six months.  
  • A further $3 billion payroll tax and premium relief for small businesses.
  • $40 million for “trade-impacted communities,” money set aside for municipalities particularly reliant on U.S. trade and harmed most by tariffs. Projects funded through the program could address supply chain diversification, community economic development planning or market development activities.
  • $38 million on “action centres” to help people transition into other jobs if there are layoffs because of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.
  • Leveraging Ontario’s nearly $30 billion in annual provincial procurement and the more than $200 billion to prioritize Ontario steel, forestry products and other provincial products for provincial infrastructure projects, purchasing Ontario-made vehicles for government use, and helping local innovators access more government procurement opportunities.

The PCs have also pledged to keep and extend an electric vehicle manufacturing subsidy agreed upon during their last term in government. The promise marks a shift, as the U.S. recently departed from such policy. The PCs said they would continue providing up to $14 billion in incentives for electric vehicle and battery manufacturing plants.

Government’s proposed measures to remove internal trade barriers

A top priority for the Ford government will be reducing inter-provincial trade barriers to open markets to domestic trade. Already over the past few days Premier Ford, alongside with his counterpart in Nova Scotia, Premier Tim Huston, noted this would be a priority. We can expect eliminating internal trade barriers will be a key focus. In this regard we can expect the following which have been identified on the PC Party’s platform:

  • Removing all of Ontario’s remaining party-specific exemptions following a final assessment under the Canada Free Trade Agreement and encouraging all other provinces to follow suit.
  • Recognizing each province and territory’s regulatory standards and certifications across Canada by reaching regulatory recognition agreements for key sectors such as trucking to ensure that a good or service that is sold or used in one province can be readily sold or used in all provinces and territories by default.
  • Allowing direct-to-consumer sales of alcohol products with all willing other provinces.

The election platform also promised an extra $50 million for the Ontario Together Trade Fund to help small businesses develop new markets. Separately, it promised to add $50 million to Venture Ontario, the province’s venture capital agency.

Another $300 million would be spent to expand a tax credit for domestic Ontario manufacturing. Separately, $600 million would go to the Invest Ontario Fund to attract manufacturing and life science technology.

As well, the PCs are committed to strengthening several key priorities for the government in addition to measures focused on Canada-U.S. relations. The PCs committed to strengthening the healthcare system to connect two million more people to primary care and expand medical school seats. They also plan to continue building and upgrading long-term care beds and hospitals across the province. Major infrastructure projects including highway expansions and transit initiatives are expected to receive approvals and government support. Education remains a priority, with plans to invest in building and expanding schools in Ontario.

Conclusion

After a four-week campaign Premier Ford has a fresh mandate to address issues heading northward from Washington D.C. In his victory speech, Premier Ford said he was ready to fight for Ontario, and Canada, which he said, “would never become the 51st state,” as President Trump has threatened. Premier Ford told cheering supporters at an Etobicoke convention hall, “Donald Trump thinks he can break us. He thinks he can divide and conquer, pit region against region. Donald Trump doesn’t know what we know. He is underestimating us. He is underestimating the resilience of the Canadian people, the Canadian spirit.”

The Ford government will have no time to spare to respond to the anticipated Trump tariffs, particularly if they are to begin on Tuesday, March 4, as President Trump indicated.

With only days away from leaving his post as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau congratulated Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario on their re-election, emphasizing that at “this crucial time, we must work together to defend Canadian interests, protect workers and businesses, and grow our economy.”

The next election on the political calendar, the federal election, is expected to be called soon after the new Leader of the Liberal Party is selected by registered Liberal voters on March 9.  The federal political landscape will no doubt alter significantly once the new Prime Minister requests that the Governor General dissolve Parliament.  The Prime Minister will identify the date of the election, which will then open the door to the general federal election.  A new chapter for Canada will follow thereafter.