Introduction

 

Yesterday, Sunday, March 23, 2025, Governor General Mary Simon dissolved Parliament at the request of Prime Minister Mark Carney—one day before Parliament was set to resume when Prorogation was announced by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on January 6. It was no surprise that this snap federal election would be called even though one was not required to occur by law until October 20, 2025. The election will be held on Monday, April 28, the shortest campaign period allowed under the Canada Elections Act.

 

Prime Minister Carney aims to lead the Liberals to a fourth consecutive electoral victory. Yesterday’s election call occurred just over a week after the Prime Minister being sworn in alongside his Cabinet on March 14, 2025. Calling the election now allows Prime Minister Carney to seek a seat in the House of Commons, rather than attempt to navigate an already unstable minority government from the sidelines.

 

In a public statement after his meeting with the Governor General, Prime Minister Carney said, “We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetime because of President Trump’s unjustified trade action and threats to our sovereignty. Our response must be to build a stronger and more secure Canada. I am asking Canadians for a strong, positive mandate to deal with President Trump and build a strong Canadian economy that works for everyone…. Because I know we need change, real change, positive change.”

 

Political landscape

 

 

This election is poised to be one of the most consequential in Canadian history as the country faces ongoing economic uncertainty in the face of a trade war with the United States and constant threats of annexation of Canada by President Trump. Voters are expected to cast their ballots for the party leader they believe can lead and execute in the midst of a trade war with the U.S. and constant treats of annexation of Canada by President Trump, improve domestic economic resilience, diversify our trade relationships with other countries, and solidify Canada’s position in a shifting world order affecting the trade and security geopolitical landscape.

 

Polling trends

 

External pressures have bolstered the Liberal Party's standing in recent national polls, with projections indicating that the Liberals may secure government once again despite trailing significantly behind the Conservatives for over a year. In contrast, Conservative support has waned in recent weeks. Overall, the convergence of domestic leadership changes and the trade war with the U.S., fraught with potential looming negative consequences for the economy, appear to be reshaping Canadians’ voting intentions.

 

Polling indicates that voters are likely to approach this election as a direct contest between competing visions offered by the Leaders of the Liberal and Conservative Parties. The current Liberal surge appears to come at the expense of the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh. Likewise, in Québec, support for the Liberal Party has climbed while the Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, has experienced a slight decline in support.

 

Overall, these polling trends suggest a challenging environment for opposition parties other than the Conservatives, as the Liberals capitalize on recent political developments and leadership changes to resuscitate their position and confront the Conservatives as their primary opponent.

 

Changing of the guard

 

When the election was called, 42 MPs had announced they were not seeking re-election, or 12% of the 338-member House. This is two less than the 44 who did not run in the 2015 election.

 

There are 25 Liberals out of the 152-member caucus—or 16.4 percent of the caucus—not running again:
 

  1. Omar Alghabra (Mississauga Centre, Ont.) 54.2%
  2. René Arseneault (Madawaska-Restigouche, N.B.) 55.2%
  3. Marie-Claude Bibeau (Compton-Stanstead, Que.) 36.7%
  4. Randy Boissonnault (Edmonton Centre, Alta.) 33.7%
  5. Pam Damoff (Oakville North-Burlington, Ont.) 46.8%
  6. Francis Drouin (Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Ont.) 46.1%
  7. Emmanuel Dubourg (Bourassa, Que.) 60.4%
  8. Sean Fraser (Central Nova, N.S.) 46.2%
  9. Ken Hardie (Fleetwood–Port Kells, B.C.) 45.2%
  10. Helena Jaczek (Markham-Stouffville, Ont.) 51%
  11. Lloyd Longfield (Guelph, Ont.) 42.1%; Ken McDonald (Avalon, N.L.) 50.1%
  12. Laurence MacAulay, (Cardigan, PEI) 50.6%
  13. John McKay (Scarborough–Guildwood, Ont.) 61.1%
  14. Michael McLeod (Northwest Territories) 38.2%
  15. Marco Mendicino (Eglinton-Lawrence, Ont.) 48.5%
  16. Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra, B.C.) 43.6%
  17. Seamus O’Regan (St. John’s South–Mount Pearl, N.L.) 56.2%
  18. Carla Qualtrough (Delta, B.C.) 42.3%
  19. Yves Robillard (Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Que.) 44.1%
  20. Anthony Rota (Nipissing–Timiskaming, Ont.) 38.8%
  21. Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South, B.C.) 49.4%
  22. Filomena Tassi (Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas, Ont.) 44.3%
  23. Justin Trudeau (Papineau) 50.3%
  24. Tony Van Bynen (Newmarket–Aurora, Ont.) 43.8%
  25. Dan Vandal (Saint Boniface-Saint Vital, Man.) 43.8%

 

There are six Conservatives out of their 120 MPs—or five% of the caucus—not running again:
 

  1. Colin Carrie (Oshawa, Ont.) 39.7%
  2. Ed Fast (Abbotsford, B.C.) 47.9%
  3. Robert Kitchen (Souris–Moose Mountain, Sask.) 76.4%
  4. Ron Liepert (Calgary Signal Hill, Alta.) 59%
  5. Karen Vecchio (Elgin-Middlesex-London, Ont.) 49.9%
  6. Gary Vidal (Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River, Sask.) 48.8%

 

There are four Bloc Québécois MPs—or 12% of the caucus—out of the 33-member caucus not seeking re-election:
 

  1. Stéphane Bergeron (Montarville, Que.) 45.3%
  2. Louise Chabot (Thérèse-De Blainville, Que.) 41.2 %
  3. Jean-Denis Garon (Mirabel, Que.) 46.5%
  4. Monique Pauzé (Repentigny, Que.) 51.7%

 

There are five NDP MPs out of the 24-member caucus are not running, or 20% of the caucus.

  1. Charlie Angus (Timmins-James Bay, Ont.) 35.1%
  2. Rachel Blaney (North Island-Powell River, B.C.) 39.5%
  3. Richard Cannings (South Okanagan-West Kootenay, B.C.) 41.3%
  4. Randall Garrison (Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, B.C.) 42.8%
  5. Carol Hughes (Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Ont.) 40.2%

 

Two Independents are not seeking re-election:

  1. Alain Rayes (Richmond–Arthabaska, Que.) 49.9%
  2. Pablo Rodriguez, former Liberal Minister, who chose to step down to seek the leader of the provincial Liberal Party in Quebec (Honoré-Mercier, Que.) 60%.

 

New candidates

 

Prime Minister Carney announced that he would be running in Nepean, Ontario. He also confirmed that the Liberal Party was busy recruiting notable candidates, some of whom would be announced in coming days. The new candidates are expected to include Christy Clark, former Premier of B.C. in Fleetwood-Port Kells, Vancouver Quadra, or Vancouver South. These ridings have opened following announcements from incumbents Ken Hardie, Joyce Murray, and Harjit Sajjan that they will not seek re-election. Carlos Leitão, former Québec finance minister and Evan Solomon, former journalist and political commentator, will likely be seeking election in Québec and Ontario, respectively.

 

For his part, Anthony Germain, former host on CBC TV and radio, has announced that he is seeking election in the riding of Terra Nova-The Peninsulas (N.L.). Priti Obhrai-Martin, daughter of the late Conservative MP Deepak Obhrai, in Calgary East, Alberta, announced her intention of seeking the Liberal nomination in the same riding her father represented as a Conservative for nearly two decades. Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi, who is attempting a return to federal politics, was announced as the Liberal candidate for Edmonton Southeast yesterday afternoon.

 

The Conservatives are believed to have recruited former chief of the Enoch Cree Nation Bill Morin, former law enforcement officer Jessy Sahota, and conversative filmmaker, Aaron Gunn, to run in this election. Greg Brady, former radio host, has already announced that he his running in Ajax, Ontario.

 

Electoral districts

 

The Constitution of Canada requires that federal electoral districts be reviewed after each decennial (10-year) census to reflect changes and movements in Canada's population. These adjustments aim to address population disparities and ensure more equitable representation across the country.

 

In 2025, the House of Commons will expand from 338 to 343 seats. Ontario gains one seat, bringing its total to 122. Alberta will receive three additional seats, increasing its representation from 34 to 37. British Columbia will gain one seat, raising its total to 43.

 

Many ridings saw their boundaries changed and some, including one in Toronto (i.e. Don Valley East), were eliminated completely. Of the 338 old ridings, only 48 remain unchanged.

 

With redistribution, the required majority in the House of Commons is 172 seats.

 

The ballot box question

 

The election will undoubtedly see political leaders offering competitive visions of how Canada should move forward in uncertain times. This election will be fought over economic stewardship, and the ballot question is who can best defend Canada and build an economy that is globally focused and less dependent on the United States.

 

For nine days, Prime Minister Carney tackled pressing external threats like Trump to stabilize the country’s footing and has shown to be politically astute with the stepped symbolism of this visits to Paris, France, and London, United Kingdom, and to Iqaluit, Nunavut.  With President Macron of France and Prime Minister Starmer of the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Carney focused on strengthening the longest-standing economic and security partnerships with European allies. In Iqaluit, Prime Minister Carney met with the Premier of Nunavut, P.J. Akeeagok, to learn more about the evolving needs and priorities of Arctic and Northern communities, to reaffirm the new government’s support for growing a stronger economy across the North, reinforce its sovereignty and security, and emphasize the continued commitment to advancing reconciliation with First Nations, Inuit, and Métis throughout the country.

 

Prime Minister Carney also cancelled the consumer carbon tax, the proposed capital gains tax increase, and the GST on new homes for homes at or under $1 million dollars, while announcing $187 million to help rebuild Jasper and Jasper National Park, which were ravaged by wildfires last year. To cap off the week, he also announced a relief package for workers and businesses hurt by the tariff war and plans to develop a national trade and economic corridor focusing on infrastructure and resource-extraction projects. The Prime Minister also committed to tabling legislation, by July 1, 2025, to eliminate all federal barriers to interprovincial trade and labour mobility and to remove all federal exemptions under the Canada Free Trade Agreement.

 

We are stronger together

 

Prime Minister Carney said, “we’ve done a lot in nine days to put in place many of the foundations…But what is important is that the government has a mandate from the Canadian people to finish the job, to finish the job of building the Canadian economy, to finish the job of diversifying our trade partners, and to have a strong mandate to stand up to President Donald Trump and the Americans and negotiate the best deal for Canada.” 

 

Canada first, for a change

 

In a press conference ahead of Prime Minister Carney’s trip to Rideau Hall, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pitched himself to Canadians, blaming the Liberals for the cost-of-living crisis, and referring to Trudeau’s tenure as “the lost Liberal decade.”  He also promised to stand up to President Trump. “We don’t go looking for a fight, but we’re ready if one comes looking for us,” Pierre Poilievre said. “None of this will be easy, but making and defending Canada wasn’t easy either, and with change, there’s hope.”

 

Meanwhile the NDP, Green Party and Bloc Québécois look to improve their standings while attacking the Liberals and Conservatives. 

 

This election campaign will be fought between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, with NPD leader Jagmeet Singh playing the role of distant third in this campaign. Some observers have pointed out that the NDP risks losing official party status at the conclusion of this election.

 

The outcome will set the tone for Canada’s future in a rapidly changing world for at least the next four years. It is believed that an electoral platform promoting a strategy built on national cohesion with a hopeful, positive, and reflective discourse with practical policies to strengthen Canada’s economy and respond to President Trump, will resonate with a broad range of voters.

 

The caretaker convention

 

From the day that the election is called (i.e. the issuing of the writ) to the day the new government is sworn in, the “Caretaker Convention”—previously known in Canada as the “Principle of Restraint” and latterly as the “Convention of Restraint”—is in effect in because there is no democratically elected body constituted to hold a government to account following the dissolution of Parliament.  The origins of the Caretaker Convention are found in the basic tenets underpinning our parliamentary democracy and our system of responsible government. The intent of the Caretaker Convention is to restrict government activity in policy making, expenditures, and appointments to matters that are at least one of the following: (a) routine, (b) non-controversial, (c) urgent and in the public interest, (d) reversible by a new government without undue cost or disruption, or (e) agreed to by opposition parties (in those cases where consultation is appropriate. (See the Privy Council Office’s Guidelines on the conduct of Ministers, Ministers of State, Exempt staff, and public servants during an election, August 2021.)

 

Canadian countermeasures to U.S. tariffs remain in force and the reprieve on imports of Canadian goods that meet the CUSMA origin rules expire on April 2, when President Trump has threatened to impose a global regime of reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trading partners. It is expected that Prime Minister Carney, his ministers, and senior public officials will continue to actively engage with stakeholders and defend Canadas interests when addressing pressing trade concerns. However, there are no guarantees that political or government officials will engage on new policy matters once the writ is dropped. The focus is on Canada-U.S. relations.

 

Conclusion

  

The 2025 Canadian federal election is now underway in the shadow of escalating trade tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump. This dispute and pending uncertainties have reshaped voter priorities, with economic issues and national sovereignty taking center stage, leading to a fluid political landscape. This has resulted in a remarkable impact narrowing the Conservatives' previous lead and thus making the outcome of the election unpredictable. Regardless of which party succeeds with the most seats, the next government will be charged with leading the country in one of the most defining periods in Canadian history.