2025 begins with Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation and prorogation of Parliament

On Monday, January 6, 2025, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he would step down as Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and Prime Minister after the Party selects a new Leader. Concurrently, the Prime Minister also announced that Governor General Mary Simon granted his request to prorogue Parliament until Monday, March 24, 2025.

What is prorogation?

Prorogation suspends the work of Parliament by ending its current session and resets the parliamentary agenda with the start of a new session and Speech from the Throne. With certain exceptions, unfinished business “dies” on the Order Paper, meaning proposed legislation is terminated and ceases to exist and must be started anew in the next session of Parliament.^[1]

What is dissolution?

Prorogation differs from dissolution in that dissolution terminates a Parliament. It formally ends all business in the Senate and in the House of Commons and is followed by a general election.^[2]

Effects of prorogation on government bills

Government bills which have not received Royal Assent before prorogation are entirely terminated. They must be reintroduced in the House as if they had never existed to be dealt with in the new session of Parliament.

Parliamentary procedure does allow government bills to be reinstated at the start of a new session at the same stage they had reached at the end of the previous session. On occasion, this has been accomplished either with the unanimous consent of the House or through the adoption of a motion to that effect, after notice and debate. The House has also adopted provisional amendments to the Standing Orders to carry over legislation to the next session following a prorogation.^[3]

It is unlikely that government bills listed below will be reintroduced or reinstated in the new session of Parliament given that the Opposition Parties have stated their intent to seek a vote of non-confidence as soon as possible.

At the outset, it is worthy to note that the proposed increase in the capital-gains tax for businesses and individuals earning over $250,000, announced in Budget 2024, is currently in a state of flux. The change was carved off from the 2024 budget implementation legislation and failed to become law. It is now debated within the Canada Revenue Agency as to whether the new additional tax can be implemented.

Twenty-six government bills died on the Order Paper^[4] when Parliament prorogued.  Among them, the following:

1. Bill C-26, An Act respecting cyber security, amending the Telecommunications Act, and making consequential amendments to other Acts, was close to becoming law when Parliament prorogued. Bill C-26 was at consideration in the House of Commons (“House”) of amendments made by the Senate.
   
   Bill C-26 proposed to (a) amend the Telecommunications Act to empower the Governor in Council and the Minister of Industry to order Canadian telecommunications providers to take actions to secure the Canadian telecommunications system against a range of threats; and (b) enact the Critical Cyber Systems Protection Act (CCSPA) to establish a new cybersecurity compliance regime for federally regulated critical cyber infrastructure (i.e. banks, energy, transportation and telecommunications). The CCPSA would have granted additional powers to the Governor in Council and the Minister of Industry and establish an administrative monetary penalty scheme to promote compliance with the Telecommunications Act and the CCSPA.
   
   
2. Bill C-27, An Act to enact the Consumer Privacy Protection Act, the Personal Information and Data Protection Tribunal Act and the Artificial Intelligence and Data Act and to make consequential and related amendments to other Acts. As the title suggests, Bill C-27 contains three proposed pieces of legislation on artificial intelligence, data protection and consumer protection. It was Canada’s first attempt to regulate AI and would have held business accountable for how they develop and use AI technology. At prorogation, Bill C-27 was under consideration by the Standing Committee on Industry and Technology.
   
   
3. Bill C-38, An Act to amend the Indian Act (new registration entitlements), would have restored Indian status to thousands of First Nations people who lost it because a male family member gave it up under a process known as enfranchisement. A 2021 Charter challenge filed in British Columbia, Nicholas v. Canada (Attorney General), was put on hold when the Government committed to introduce legislation seeking to address discrimination in the registration and membership provisions of the Indian Act. At prorogation, Bill C-38 was at Second reading in the House.
   
   
4. Bill C-61, An Act respecting water, source water, drinking water, wastewater, and related infrastructure on First Nation lands, would have committed the Government to provide adequate and sustainable funding of water supplies on First Nation lands. At prorogation, Bill C-61 was at Report stage in the House.
   
   
5. Bill C-63, An Act to enact the Online Harms Act, to amend the Criminal Code, the Canadian Human Rights Act and An Act respecting the mandatory reporting of Internet child pornography by persons who provide an Internet service and to make consequential and related amendments to other Acts, would have created a regulatory regime to hold social media services accountable for reducing exposure to harmful content on their platforms (i.e. content that sexually victimizes a child or revictimizes a survivor, intimate content communicated without consent, content used to bully a child, content that induces a child to harm themselves, content that foments hatred, content that incites violence, and content that incites violent extremism or terrorism.) The Online Harms Act would establish a Digital Safety Commission of Canada to administer the framework, a Digital Safety Ombudsperson of Canada to be a resource for users and victims and to advocate for online safety, and a Digital Safety Office to support the Commission and the Ombudsperson.
   
   To combat hate speech and hate crimes both online and offline, Bill C-63 proposed an amendment to the Criminal Code to create a new general hate crime offence and an amendment to the Canadian Human Rights Act to complement the regulation of social media services by allowing recourse to the Canadian Human Rights Commission against individual users who post hate speech on those services and elsewhere online. Lastly, Bill C-63 would have improved the mandatory reporting of child pornography online by persons who provide an internet service. At prorogation, Bill C-63 was at Second reading in the House.
   
   
6. Bill C-65, An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act, was designed to encourage and support voter participation. The bill added two additional days of advance polling and increased flexibility for holding advance polling in remote, isolated communities with smaller populations. Bill C-65 was introduced in the House on March 20, 2024, as part of the now-defunct Supply and Confidence Agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. At prorogation, Bill C-65 was under consideration by the House Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs.
   
   
7. Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act (2024), would have reversed a change by Stephen Harper’s Conservative government of 2009 stripping children of a Canadian parent born outside of Canada to their automatic right to citizenship. Bill C-71 was in response to aDecember 19, 2023, ruling of the Ontario Superior Court that it was unconstitutional to deny citizenship to children born overseas to parents who were also born outside of the country. At prorogation, Bill C-71 was at Second reading in the House.

Effects of prorogation on Private Members’ Business

1. House of Commons Private Members’ Bills

Prorogation has almost no practical effect on Private Members’ Bills and motions originating in the House. Private Members’ Bills and motions need not be reintroduced in a new session as they are deemed to have passed all stages completed in the previous session and retain the same place on the Order Paper. Thus, Private Members’ Bills and motions originating in the House and placed on the order of precedence remain there.

However, Private Members’ Bills originating in the House and which are no longer before the House are not carried over following a prorogation. A Private Members’ Bill that has been sent to the Senate but has not received Royal Assent before prorogation would be referred to the Senate again by the House of Commons and would start the process in the Senate anew at first reading.^[4] 

Private Members’ Bills in the House of Commons are selected by a random draw to be placed on the order of precedence. When Parliament adjourned on December 17, 2024, for the winter break, the House of Commons Order Paper and Notice Paper^[5] listed 26 Private Members’ Bills on the order of precedence.

Even if MPs introduce bills in the House in the new session of Parliament, the bills would be outside the order of precedence and would not receive consideration during Private Members’ Business in the House of Commons until such time as a new random draw would take place, which is unlikely to happen considering the number of items on the order of precedence and the short timeframe for what will be the 45^th session of Parliament after prorogation. 

2. Senate Public Bills

All bills on the Senate Order Paper and Notice Paper die at the end of a session or Parliament. The Senate has no procedure for reinstating bills from a previous session or Parliament. They must be introduced as new bills in the new session of Parliament, if any are deemed worthy of being introduced.

Senate Public Bills are the result of proceedings in the Senate and cannot be carried over from session to session. However, should the Senate decide to adopt a bill that is identical to one previously sent to the House in a previous session of the same Parliament, the sponsor of the bill in the House may ask that it be reinstated at the same stage of the legislative process before prorogation. Such reinstatement can occur only within the first 60 sitting days of the session.^[6] If the bill receives first reading later than 60 days into the session, no reinstatement is possible, and the bill must proceed through the regular legislative process.

Bills that are reintroduced or reinstated are not assigned the same numbers from one session to another.

Election considerations

The Liberal party will announce its new leader on March 9. The Leader will inherit a very unstable Government and will have little time to present their personal vision for the Party. It is believed that the House will be dissolved for a spring election after prorogation as the Opposition Parties have expressed the desire to seek a vote of non-confidence as early as possible.

1. The Government is defeated on a supply bill

 

Worthy to note that the new session of Parliament is obliged to begin before March 31, 2025, because of the need to conduct a vote on government supply (authorization of spending) to ensure government can continue its operations into fiscal year 2025/2026.

Vote on a supply bill is a confidence matter. The Government could fall on the date of that vote. However, if that occurs, the Financial Administration Act^[7] allows the Governor in Council to ask the Governor General to issue a Special Warrant that authorizes payments from the Consolidated Revenue Fund for government expenditures, allowing the government to continue its work during a dissolution to prevent essential government programs and operations from running out of funds. Special Warrants may be used only from the date of dissolution until 60 days following the date fixed for the return of the writs after a general election.^[8]

Assuming the Liberals manage to get the support of at least one Opposition Party to pass the supply vote, they would soon have to grant Opposition Days to Opposition Parties. During Opposition Days, Opposition Parties have control of the agenda of the House and could table a motion of non-confidence in the Government. This might happen given the unanimous lack of confidence in Government as expressed by the Conservatives, the NDP and Bloc Québécois.

In both circumstances, we arrive at the same result. A federal election could be held in the spring whether the Government is defeated on the supply motion or an Opposition Day motion.

2. The Government is defeated on the vote of the Speech from the Throne

The vote on the Speech from the Throne is also a non-confidence vote. The Government could fall on the day that vote is taken. If that happens, a spring election is highly likely.

3. The new Leader of the Liberal Party asks Governor General to dissolve Parliament for a federal election

Prorogation ensures government stability during the Liberal leadership race. Once chosen, the new Leader, who will also be the Prime Minister, could ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament because the Government no longer feels it has the confidence of the House of Commons. Again, we are dealing with the possibility of a spring federal election.

4. The federal election is held on Monday, October 20, 2025

While a new political bargain on confidence and supply between the Liberals and the NDP or Bloc Québecois is unlikely given that the Opposition Parties have stated that they no longer have confidence in the Government, it is possible but remote that the new Liberal Leader would attempt to negotiate an arrangement with the NDP or Bloc to achieve confidence in the House and push back the timeframe for the election to October 2025. This approach would provide relief to the time crunch the new Liberal Leader would be facing if an election were held in the spring to distance themselves from Prime Minister Trudeau and improve the Party’s public polling numbers. The Liberals are trailing by 20+ points in public polls.

What this means for your advocacy efforts?

The next federal election will take place this year before or on October 20, 2025. However, very soon, the Canadian government will need to deal with the pledge of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian imports on the day of his January 20, 2025, inauguration or shortly thereafter.

The field of contenders for the Liberal leadership is narrowing.  Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Phillipe Champagne, and Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly have announced their decision to remain in Cabinet to deal with the incoming Trump administration rather than run for the Liberal leadership. Their comments in press scrums seem to suggest that their decision is motivated by strategic considerations. They know that the odds of winning the Liberal leadership race are low given the Party’s practice of alternating between francophone and anglophone leaders.  

Minister of Transport and Internal Trade Anita Anand, and Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour Steven Mackinnon have also announced their wish to remain in Cabinet and to stay out of the race.

The Cabinet is actively engaged on the issue of the U.S. tariffs. Industry, trade associations and relevant organizations should continue to prepare to mitigate the effects of a 25 per cent tariff and continue to engage with key Ministers, their staff, the Office of the Prime Minister, and sitting MPs as the Government of Canada is preparing how best to practically respond to a trade war waged by the U.S.

At the same time, outreach with the Conservatives must not be overlooked because of the expected federal election in the spring or into the fall. The runway may be short but there is still an opportunity of proposing policies for inclusion in the Party’s election platform and potentially post-election Ministerial mandate letters.

The following weeks will shed further light on the priorities of each of the Liberal leadership candidates and the issues they identify as critical to concentrate upon for the well-being of Canada. Thereafter, Canadians will be given a choice as to which policies and vision they would best embrace moving forward considering the current domestic, Canada-U.S., and global challenges we now face – and which loom on the horizon.

For more information, please reach out to one of the authors.