Pétrole, gaz et hydrogène : comment le Canada peut saisir l'occasion de devenir le leader mondial de l'énergie (disponible en anglais)

The Future of Fossil Fuels

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2019 projects renewables to be the most used energy source globally by 2050.  However, rather than forecasting a drop in oil & gas usage reminiscent of a typical decline curve, it predicts a steady rise in the worldwide use of petroleum and a significant increase in the use of natural gas.  This would seem to align with an inclusion in ExxonMobil’s 2020 Annual Report citing the Brookings Institute that states, “[g]lobal demand for energy will increase as the world’s population grows by an expected 1.6 billion people in the next two decades to more than 9 billion; the middle class will expand to more than 5 billion people by 2030, with almost 90 percent of the next 1 billion entrants into the middle class living in Asia.”

An April 6, 2021 analysis by TD Economics states that “[e]fforts currently underway to shift the landscape of energy demand away from fossil fuels are expected to lower oil & gas consumption by between 40-50% in North America and we anticipate this could lead to a net displacement of 312,000 to 450,000 jobs in the sector through 2050.” 

If the above predictions are accurate, these sources suggest that global oil use will be higher in 2050 but it will access this supply from outside of North America.  Meanwhile, North America will focus on renewable energy and essentially “outsource” fossil fuel production.  TD Economics notes this would be similar to what occurred in the U.S. and Canadian manufacturing sectors in the 1990s.

Read the full article on Lexpert.ca »